USD/TRY: Rebound Expected
Pivot (invalidation): 7.6680
Our preference Long positions above 7.6680 with targets at 7.7500 & 7.7950 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.6680 look for further downside with 7.6200 & 7.5850 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.
USD/TRY: Turning Down
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7400
Our preference Short positions below 7.7400 with targets at 7.6680 & 7.6100 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.7400 look for further upside with 7.7790 & 7.8160 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a new downleg.
Currency Pair of the Week: USD/TRY
The Coronavirus is raging throughout the United States. The US is now consistently reporting over 150,000 new daily cases. Lockdowns and restrictions are looming. There is also a new US President-elect who wants to raise taxes on the wealthy. Yet stock indices are closing at or near all-time highs! ...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Vaccination Record
U.S. Review
Vaccination Record
The combination of the election outcome and a workable vaccine boosted financial markets and set the background music for this week's short list of indicators. See Topic of the Week for our take on the economic implications of the vaccine.
Small businesses reported near-record uncertainty in...
USD/TRY: Rebound Expected
Pivot (invalidation): 7.6530
Our preference Long positions above 7.6530 with targets at 7.8250 & 7.8940 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.6530 look for further downside with 7.5930 & 7.5110 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.
USD/TRY: The Downside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 7.9270
Our preference Short positions below 7.9270 with targets at 7.7350 & 7.6600 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.9270 look for further upside with 8.0570 & 8.2000 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.
USD/TRY Outlook: Lira Rxtends Recovery On Hopes Of CBRT Rate Hike
The Turkish lira remains at the front foot against US dollar, following recent gains on risk appetite, sparked by fresh Covid-19 vaccine hopes and replacement of CBRT governor and Financial Minister.
The USDTRY pair eased nearly 5% on pullback from new record high at 8.5816 (posted last Friday) and cracked...
USD/TRY: Rebound
Pivot (invalidation): 8.0990
Our preference Long positions above 8.0990 with targets at 8.2150 & 8.3000 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 8.0990 look for further downside with 8.0320 & 7.9760 as targets.
Comment The RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.
USD/TRY: The Downside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 8.4450
Our preference Short positions below 8.4450 with targets at 8.3170 & 8.2500 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 8.4450 look for further upside with 8.5000 & 8.5700 as targets.
Comment A break below 8.3170 would trigger a drop towards 8.2500.
USD/TRY: The Downside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 8.4450
Our preference Short positions below 8.4450 with targets at 8.3170 & 8.2500 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 8.4450 look for further upside with 8.5000 & 8.5700 as targets.
Comment A break below 8.3170 would trigger a drop towards 8.2500.
USD/TRY: Aim @ 8.3710
Pivot (invalidation): 8.4450
Our preference Short positions below 8.4450 with targets at 8.3980 & 8.3710 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 8.4450 look for further upside with 8.4750 & 8.5110 as targets.
Comment A break below 8.3980 would trigger a drop towards 8.3710.
USD/TRY: Key Resistance At 8.4600
Pivot (invalidation): 8.4600
Our preference Short positions below 8.4600 with targets at 8.3980 & 8.3710 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 8.4600 look for further upside with 8.5000 & 8.5460 as targets.
Comment The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 8.4600.
USD/TRY: Key Resistance At 8.4700
Pivot (invalidation): 8.4700
Our preference Short positions below 8.4700 with targets at 8.3780 & 8.3380 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 8.4700 look for further upside with 8.5000 & 8.5460 as targets.
Comment The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 8.4700.
USD/TRY: The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 8.3860
Our preference Long positions above 8.3860 with targets at 8.4650 & 8.5080 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 8.3860 look for further downside with 8.3380 & 8.3000 as targets.
Comment The break above 8.3860 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 8.4650.
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
The waiting game has begun. Trading remained technical in nature today as markets await key central bank meetings, including the Fed and the Bank of England on Thursday, as well as important data (payrolls on Friday) and of course the all-important US elections tomorrow (night). All could have a...
USD/TRY Watch 8.4470
Pivot (invalidation): 8.3270
Our preference Long positions above 8.3270 with targets at 8.4000 & 8.4470 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 8.3270 look for further downside with 8.2700 & 8.2190 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.
Week Ahead – Election Time!
The week we’ve all been waiting for
What a week we have in store. The US jobs report is typically the headline act the first week of the month but next week it won’t even make the top three. Covid-19 is wreaking havoc once again, the Fed, BoE and RBA...
USD/TRY Further Upside
Pivot (invalidation): 8.2690
Our preference Long positions above 8.2690 with targets at 8.3500 & 8.3860 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 8.2690 look for further downside with 8.2390 & 8.2040 as targets.
Comment The RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.
USD/TRY The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 8.2390
Our preference Long positions above 8.2390 with targets at 8.3280 & 8.3860 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 8.2390 look for further downside with 8.2040 & 8.1620 as targets.
Comment A support base at 8.2390 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
USD/TRY Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 8.1520
Our preference Long positions above 8.1520 with targets at 8.2300 & 8.2750 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 8.1520 look for further downside with 8.1170 & 8.0780 as targets.
Comment The break above 8.1520 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 8.2300.
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Interpreting market moves feels familiar these days. Trading revolved around the dire evolution in the pandemic with little attention to mixed economic data. September US durable goods orders beat estimates (1.9% m/m vs. 0.5%). However, a gauge for capital investments (capital good shipments excluding aircrafts) disappointed slightly as did...
USD/TRY Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 8.0540
Our preference Long positions above 8.0540 with targets at 8.1150 & 8.1400 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 8.0540 look for further downside with 8.0200 & 7.9750 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Stock markets shed 1% (US) to 2% (Europe) currently against a deteriorating Corona-background at both sides of the Atlantic. German IFO business sentiment printed near consensus, confirming the German outperformance witnessed in last week’s PMI’s, but didn’t shift trading dynamics. It was all about risk sentiment today given the...
USD/TRY: Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 7.9470
Our preference Long positions above 7.9470 with targets at 8.0000 & 8.0200 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.9470 look for further downside with 7.9250 & 7.9080 as targets.
Comment Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
Week Ahead – The Final Stretch
The countdown is on
The next couple of weeks will be crucial to how we end the year in financial markets and investors are standing by, waiting to respond. It’s deal making time, with months – or in the UK’s case, years – of negotiations coming to a head as...
USD/TRY: Watch 8.0000
Pivot (invalidation): 7.9090
Our preference Long positions above 7.9090 with targets at 7.9690 & 8.0000 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.9090 look for further downside with 7.8820 & 7.8500 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
A 5 session straight rise of long term US yields ends today. The US 10-yr yield lost slightly overnight before flatlining. The overnight move was related to a report on Russian and Iranian US election meddling and caused some risk aversion in Asian dealings. For the time being, it...
Stimulus Reality Sinking In
Optimism is wearing thin as another day passes and talks are continuing in Washington for much needed stimulus ahead of the election.
Such is the importance of a stimulus package that it's completely overshadowing the election itself with less than two weeks to go. And yet, it's looking increasingly unlikely...
USD/TRY: Rebound Expected
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7850
Our preference Long positions above 7.7850 with targets at 7.8230 & 7.8510 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.7850 look for further downside with 7.7700 & 7.7500 as targets.
Comment A support base at 7.7850 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
USD/TRY Towards 7.8270
Pivot (invalidation): 7.8790
Our preference Short positions below 7.8790 with targets at 7.8470 & 7.8270 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.8790 look for further upside with 7.9050 & 7.9240 as targets.
Comment A break below 7.8470 would trigger a drop towards 7.8270.