The Turkish lira is consolidating above the new record low vs Euro (10.3361) posted on Tuesday, with risk of further fall seen on Turkey’s strong export to the Europe, which significantly bigger than to the US.
Also, Turkish inflation data for May, due next week, could further dent lira if inflation goes above April’s 17.14% that keeps in play high risk that inflation would rise above interest rates soon.
The CBRT has so far managed to keep interest rate above the level of inflation, but lira could be at great risk if consumer prices surpass interest rate, as the central bank is unlikely to further increase interest rate due to the policies of President Erdogan who prefers lower interest rates to help the economy.
Bulls look for a monthly close above the previous record high (10.2007) to confirm signal of bullish continuation and expose next targets at 10.9034 and 11.3375 (Fibo 138.2% and 161.8% projections).
Daily Tenkan-sen (10.1902) marks solid support which should limit downticks and keep bulls intact.
Res: 10.3361; 10.5000; 10.6348; 10.9034.
Sup: 10.2426; 10.2007; 10.1902; 10.1447.