USDCHF rebounded on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.9185 to 1.0235 near 0.9830 during yesterday’s trading session, touching the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).
In the short-term, the market could turn positive if the RSI keeps moving around the 50 level, however the red Tenkan-sen line, as well as the blue Kijun-sen line, hold flat. The stochastic oscillator seems ready to turn higher again as the %K line touches the oversold zone and is sloping up.
An extension to the upside could find immediate resistance at the 40-day SMA currently at 0.9910. Further up, resistance could run towards the 0.9950 barrier, taken from the latest highs and the 23.6% Fibonacci region of 0.9985.
On the other hand, if the pair weakens again and declines below the 38.2% Fibonacci region of 0.9830, the 50.0% Fibo of 0.9707 and the 0.9695 support could provide immediate levels for traders.
In the medium-term picture, USDCHF has been trading bearish in the past three months after the close below the 27-month high of 1.0235. Still, if the pair manages to cross above 1.0000, the bearish outlook could switch to a bullish one.