Multi-day range is narrowing as near-term price action is holding within a pennant pattern and awaiting fresh signals.
Converging 20 and 10DMA’s (106.66 and 106.29 respectively) hold the action for now and mark pivotal points, with break of either side to generate initial direction signals.
Daily techs maintain strong bullish momentum, bur RSI is flat and MA’s in negative setup that lacks clearer signal.
The upside remains well protected as the action in past two weeks was repeatedly rejected at key Fibo barrier at 106.68 (38.2% of 109.31/105.05).
Strong bids from Japanese importers at 106 zone and exporters’ offers at 107 area, add to neutral near-term tone, along with silence in US/China trade talks.
Fed Chairman Powell is under pressure to continue easing on mounting outside pressure, as well as pressure from President Trump, but also wants to maintain appropriate monetary policy and make decision on sufficient evidence.
Markets widely expect the Fed to cut rates in September, but the central bank may signal that no more aggressive approach to the monetary policy is on the table for now.
The pair may rally on more dovish tone from Powell, with eventually close above key Fibo barrier / 20DMA (106.68/66) needed for initial bullish signal, which will be verified on extension above falling 30DMA (107.13).
Conversely, the dollar may came under increased pressure if Powell signals that the central bank is entering longer easing cycle.
Break of 10DMA (106.29) and near-term congestion floor (106.16) would generate initial bearish signal and risk retest of key 105 support zone.
Res: 106.68, 106.97, 107.13, 107.57
Sup: 106.50, 106.29, 106.16, 105.65