Tue, Sep 27, 2022 @ 05:52 GMT
HomeContributorsTechnical AnalysisMarket Morning Briefing: Pound Has Surged To A 4-Week High

Market Morning Briefing: Pound Has Surged To A 4-Week High

STOCKS

Dow (21454.61, +0.68%) bounced back from interim support near 21310 but it would be important to see if the index manages to break above 21500-21550 levels. A confirmed break on the upside, if seen could initiate fresh bullishness for the medium term.

Dax (12647.27, -0.19%) is trading higher today after testing levels just above 12500 yesterday. There is some scope of testing 12400 on the downside before bouncing back towards 12800 and higher.

Shanghai (3180.43, +0.23%) could come off towards 3150 while resistance near 3200 holds. Near term dip is possible within an overall gradual uptrend.

Nikkei (20238.85, +0.54%) is headed towards 21000, a crucial medium term resistance which could produce some corrective dip back to 19000 in the coming sessions.

There is scope for Nifty (9491.25, -0.21%) to test levels near 9400-9380 in the coming sessions before a fresh bounce could take place. For now, the corrective phase may continue for some more sessions.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1252) and Silver (16.87) are going nowhere as they keep trading in the narrow range of 1233-1262 and 16.30-17.10 respectively, which may continue for the rest of the week. A break of the respective resistances could be resulted in gradual buying for the target of 1280 and 17.50.

Copper (2.68) moved higher in line with our expectation and trading within a range of 2.66-78. The scrip is overbought thus upside could be limited but in the medium term 2.55-57 are going to be a strong support and we will remain bullish while it is trading above those levels.

Brent (47.57) and WTI (45.01) closed higher and trading as per our recommended levels. We will remain bullish in extreme short term time frame while Brent and WTI are trading above 46 and 43 levels. We might see 49 (Brent) and 47(WTI) within this rally. But in the medium term, sellers will take every bounce as a further opportunity of selling while Brent and WTI are trading below 56 and 53 levels.

FOREX

Clear indications of rate hikes coming from all the central banks from the European to North American continent and worries over the relative economic performance of US are pushing Dollar down and strengthening the majors.

Dollar Index (95.85) continues to register fresh lows as it approaches the support zone of 95.40-00. The trend remains down as long as it trades below 97.00 but keep an eye on Euro (1.1403) which has reached the major supply zone of 1.1400-1.1500. This supply zone has been rejecting all the upmoves in the last 2 years, demanding absolute caution at the current levels. 1.1550 is the highest possible level seen for now before a major bout of profit booking emerges.

Dollar-Yen (112.29) has tested 112.50 as expected and may rise further towards 113.00 if the support of 112.00 holds for the next couple of sessions.

Pound (1.2950) has surged to a 4-week high on the back of the BOE governor Carney signaling the possibility of rate hikes coming sooner than expected. It remains to be seen if the resistance zone of 1.3000-50 can contain the current rally as a successful break above this resistance may unfold further rally to 1.33-34 but the chances of the resistane holding for a few sessions before a breakout can’t be negated at this point.

Aussie (0.7655) is getting closer to the major resistance zone of 0.7700-0.7800 which is expected to hold for the next few days and push the currency back.

Dollar-Rupee (64.55) was almost ranged in the 13paisa region of 64.50-64.63 yesterday and is expected to trade sideways in the near term within 64.40-64.60. As long as the interim resistance of 64.63 holds, we could see a fall back towards 64.40 in the next couple of sessions.

INTEREST RATES

The US 10YR (2.2261%) trading higher and looks bullish in the near term. If it does not manage to break above 2.25/26% in the near term, we could see a fall back to 2.20% in the coming sessions.

The German 10Yr (0.368%) is also rising and could head towards 0.38% in the next few sessions. Greece 10Yr (5.497%) and the Italian 10YR (2.032%) are also rising respectively and looks bullish for the near to medium term.

The Japanese yields too seem to be on a rising track and could head higher in the near term. The 10Yr (0.066%) is trading higher and may test 0.070% soon.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
Kshitij Consultancy Servicehttp://www.kshitij.com
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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