GBPUSD’s positive sentiment seems to be unbroken as the pair holds above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), eyeing the fresh peak of 1.3011. The price bounced off previous peaks from June (now-turned-support), repowering the positive signals of the MAs and the momentum indicators.
The short-term oscillators suggest that positive momentum is improving. The MACD, is still in the positive zone but below its red trigger line, looking to move back above it, while the RSI has risen close to the 70-level. Further backing this, is the nearing of another bullish crossover of the 200-day SMA by the 50-day one and the mostly rising slopes of the 20-, 50- and 100-day SMAs. However, the turning down in the %K in the stochastics is worth mentioning, as it warns of a retreat.
If buyers continue the push up, the peak of 1.3011 followed by the nearby 1.3045 resistance, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.3381 to 1.1957, could be first to restrict buyers gaining ground. Overrunning this, the 1.3176 resistance from May 3 could test the bulls ahead of the highs from March at 1.3268 and 1.3310.
If sellers drive the price lower, initially the 20-day SMA and 61.8% Fibo of 1.2838 could stall the drop towards the 1.2768 swing low. Next, the 1.2705 to 1.2655 region of the nearing bullish cross could challenge the bears ahead of the inside swing of 1.2581, followed by the 38.2% Fibo at the 1.2500 handle.
Summarizing, the pair still holds a neutral-to-positive bias in the short-term. Yet, a break above 1.3011 or below 1.2768 would reveal the direction.