STOCKS
Dow (21532.14, +0.57%) has been re-testing the crucial 21500-21550 levels since the last few weeks but has failed to see any sharp rejection that could push it below 21300. While the conflict between the bulls and bears go on, we may wait for price confirmation for more clarity on further direction. Only on a sustained break above 21550-21600 can we shift our focus on higher levels ; else a fall back towards 21300 and lower is possible.
Dax (12626.58, +1.52%) finally broke above 12500 and rallied to close above 12600. Initial levels of 12750-12800 could be tested in the next few sessions.
Shanghai (3200.90,+0.10%) continues to remain in the up channel and could target. 3220-3240 possibly next week. Overall trend remains up.
Nikkei (20128.88, +0.15%) is stuck within 20270-20000 levels and the price action seems to be in a contraction mode. A break above 20200 to target 20400 is possible in the coming sessions. Overall there is enough room on the upside just now which keeps the bullish possibility intact.
Nifty (9816.10, +0.31%) inched up yesterday to close at higher levels above 9800. We keep our bullish view towards 9850-9900 intact for the near term.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1221) and Silver (15.92) are trading marginally higher to keep the upside possibilities open. The recent trading range could be 1188-1231 for Gold and 15.20-16.10 for Silver. Both of them are in a neutral trading zone thus we will be assured of strength in Gols and Silver only when a firm and sustainable closing above 1231 and 16.50 are made by both of them. Otherwise a failure to close above those levels may push them towards 1200 and 15.20 levels respectively.
Muted price action had been seen in Copper (2.68), trading within the same range of 2.66-2.78. Only above 2.78 higher resistances of 2.85 can come into consideration. In the medium term 2.55-57 are going to be a strong support and we will remain bullish while it is trading above those levels.
Brent (47.65) and WTI (45.41) are hovering around their pivots of 47.76 and 45.60 of their trading range of 44-50 and 42-48 respectively. There is a decent chance that these pivots might hold, producing a fresh decline towards 44 (Brent) and 42 (WTI) regions.
In the bigger picture, market is continuously ignoring the shortage (-7.3, -3.2 and -6.3 M B) in U.S weekly crude inventories for last three weeks. This could be resulted in consolidation at lower levels with a fresh upside rally starting from the 45/46 (Brent) and 43/44 (WTI) regions that might have potential to break above 48 and 47 in the medium term.
FOREX
A hint of profit taking has been seen in Euro (1.1438) as it is trading below 1.1460 regions.We had mentioned yesterday that EURO could faces crucial long-term Resistance in the 1.1520-40 region now. Market sentiment is turning very bullish,therefore, it would be good to be cautious at these levels.
Dollar Index (95.16) had moved lower , as expected. The trend is strongly bearish, targeting 94.75 at least, possibly lower.
Euro-Yen (129.17) came off sharply yesterday and could come down towards 128.00-127.40 in the next 2-sessions before again moving higher towards 129-130. Corrective phase may continue for now.
Dollar-Yen (112.96) seems to have possibly completed a near term high at 114.50 and could be heading towards 112 soon. While below 113.30, the bears may continue to dominate price action.
Pound (1.2899) has bounced as expected and could move up towards 1.30 in the next few sessions. Immediate support is visible near 1.2800. Near term could be bullish.
The Aussie (0.769) has been rising for the past few sessions but is heading towards important resistance near 0.7700-0.7730 levels from where a short dip is possible. Only if the resistance fails to produce any immediate rejection can we look for a rise towards 0.78 or higher. Watch important resistance zone of 0.7700-0.7730.
Dollar Rupee (64.5375) made an intra-day high of 64.5750 before closing at slightly lower levels. A rise to 64.70/75 is still on the cards for the coming sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have come off sharply and are headed to lower levels. The 5YR (1.88%), 10YR (2.33%) and the 30Yr (2.88%) are all trading lower and could head towards 1.80%, 2.28% and 2.80% in the coming sessions. Near term is likely to see a fall in the yields.
The German-US 10Yr (-1.82%) and the German-US 2Yr (-1.97%) still show some scope of moving higher in the near term while the UK-US 10Yr (-1.07%), German-Japan 10YR (0.43%) and the US-Japan 10YR (2.24%) are looking weak and could see some fall in the near term.
