EURUSD looks to be mostly neutral after an ascent from the 35-month low of 1.0635 returned the price back above the 1.1000 handle, overcoming the simple moving averages (SMAs) and the Ichimoku cloud.
The short-term oscillators reflect a stall in the positive momentum. The MACD, in the negative area, has moved above its red trigger line and near to zero, while the RSI hovers above its neutral mark, pointing slightly down. Additionally, backing this view are the stochastics, which are currently in overbought territory, with the %K line emitting signals of a possible pullback. That said a conflicting bearish picture is currently displayed within the Ichimoku lines and all the SMAs.
To the upside, an initial important resistance region from the 1.1146 high to the 1.1166 hurdle, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.1496 to 1.0635, could prove difficult to overrun. Conquering this, the 1.1235 swing high could halt the climb towards the 76.4% Fibo of 1.1292, a break of which would send the price to challenge the 13-month peak of 1.1496 – just shy of the 1.1500 handle – and the 1.1514 obstacle overhead.
Otherwise, if sellers manage to close decisively below the 200-day SMA and the 50.0% Fibo of 1.1066 underneath, the 100- and 50-day SMAs at 1.1040 and 1.1000 respectively could deter the price from encountering the 38.2% Fibo of 1.0965. Falling below this, the 23.6% Fibo of 1.0838 may challenge bears’ efforts to revisit the multi-year low of 1.0635.
Overall, the short-term bias has returned to a neutral mode, and a close either above 1.1235 or below 1.0965 could reveal the next near-term direction.
