EURUSD found buyers last week and turned up to re-challenge its recent swing highs. The bullish pressure, however, proved insufficient, with the price failing again to close above 1.0980 despite spiking to 1.1016 on Friday.
On Monday, the pair started the session in the red and below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), while also piercing the 1.0950 barrier underneath, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci of the upleg from 1.0635 to 1.1145. Should the bears finally dominate below that level, it is possible that the price may weaken towards the 50% Fibonacci of 1.0890, which is positioned slightly above the 20-day SMA, while lower the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.0830 will be closely watched as well. In the event the latter fails to halt the sell-off, the door would open for the key support of 1.0770, where any violation could stage a steeper decline.
On the flip side, a rebound near 1.0950 may see a retest of the 1.0980 level. Breaching that ceiling, the market could probably look for resistance around the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.1025, where the 200-day SMA lies as well, while higher, it would be interesting to see if the descending trendline drawn from the 1.1411 peak stands tall once again, blocking the way towards 1.1145.
In the medium-term picture, the market is maintaining a neutral profile within the 1.0635 and 1.1495 borders. Any violation at the respective edges could provide a new direction for the pair.
Summarizing, EURUSD is expected to remain under pressure in the short-term if it manages to close clearly below 1.0950, while buying appetite could resume above 1.0980.
