The US 500 cash index has been retreating over the last few days, after it found strong obstacle at the 15-week high of 3,233.
The price has just breached the red Tenkan-sen line and may find support at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 3,019, ahead of the 2,986 support, being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 2,183.95 to 3,233. Falling below this line, the 100-day SMA at 2,944 and the 50-day SMA at 2,902 could attract attention.
The short-term momentum indicators are confirming this view as the MACD is ready to slip beneath its trigger line in the positive region, while the RSI dived beneath the overbought area, shifting the strong bullish picture to a downside correction.
In the alternative scenario, a successful jump above the 3,140 immediate resistance could meet again the 15-week peak of 3,233 before challenging the all-time high of 3,396.64. Above that, psychological numbers may come into the spotlight such as 3,500 and 4,000.
Summarizing, the index is trying to turn the neutral outlook to bullish, but can only succeed if there is a daily close above the record peak.
