HomeContributorsTechnical AnalysisEUR/USD 78.6% Bounce And USD/JPY Break Above 115

EUR/USD 78.6% Bounce And USD/JPY Break Above 115

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance top (dotted red) of the wave 1 (blue), which could start the wave 3 (brown) of wave 3 (blue). Price needs to reach at least the 161.8% Fibonacci target before the wave 3 can be confirmed.

The USD/JPY keeps pushing with higher highs and price seems to be extending the wave 5 (orange) with 5 internal waves (magenta/pink). Once the wave 3 (magenta) is completed, then a corrective chart pattern such as a bull flag or contracting triangle must emerge to confirm wave 4 (magenta). A break of that pattern could lead to a wave 5 (magenta) of wave 5 (orange).

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD indeed showed a bullish bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B vs A (blue). Price is now approaching the resistance trend line (red) of the consolidation zone (red/green). A break above resistance (red) could see a test of the wave 2 Fibonacci levels (purple) although a break above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A failure to break resistance (red) could see expand within the consolidation (red/green).

The EUR/USD could be in a bullish 5 wave pattern (orange) within wave C (blue). A break below the fractal at the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 would invalidate this wave structure. A break above resistance (red) could see a fragile breakout towards the Fib levels.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD broke above an inner resistance line (dotted orange) but remains in a downtrend channel (red lines). Price has both channel resistance (red) and horizontal resistance (orange) nearby. A bearish break below support (green) could see price move towards 1.20 which is a psychological round level, previous bottom (green) and 161.8% Fibonacci target.

The GBP/USD remains bearish in my view as long as price stays below horizontal resistance levels (orange). The divergence between the bottoms could indicate that a bearish break of support (green) might lack strength but price could reach the bottom of the channel again.

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