AUDUSD continues to sideline inside the 0.7700 area and below the Ichimoku cloud for the third consecutive week, also remaining within the broader range of 0.7526 – 0.8006 since the start of the year.
The short-term risk looks to be tilted to the downside, as the RSI has been making lower lows and lower highs since the end of April, while the MACD has been losing strength during the same period, recently crossing below its red signal line.
A decisive close below the 0.7685 support zone, where the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) is flattening on the four-hour chart, could raise selling interest towards the next key obstacle of 0.7600. Lower, the bears could re-challenge the series of troughs around 0.7533 before heading for the 200-day SMA at 0.7474.
Alternatively, a break above the cloud, and specifically a close above the 0.7815 nearby resistance, may initially stabilize around 0.7870 and then merge with the crucial region of 0.7935 – 0.7965. Moving beyond the 0.8035 barrier, the door would open for the 2018 peak of 0.8135.
In brief, AUDUSD is trendless both in the short- and medium-term pictures. A dip below 0.7686 or an advance above 0.7815 could shift the bias accordingly.