STOCKS
Important supports are visible below current levels on most indices and while they hold, a rise may be possible in the medium term. Dow and Dax are bullish while above supports at 35500/35000 and 15400 respectively while Nikkei and Shanghai can rise while above 28000 and 3550. Nifty has crucial support at 18000 while Sensex needs to remain above 60000 to head higher. Any break below mentioned supports, if seen would signal bearishness and force us to look for lower targets.
Dow (35677.02, +73.94, +0.21%) has risen and is heading towards the resistance at 36000 which can hold in the initial testing followed by a fall towards 35500-35000. Below 35000, there is another support at 34000. Watch price action near mentioned levels on a fall.
DAX (15542.98, +70.42, +0.46%) has risen today. While above 15400 the view remains bullish to test 15600/800 in the coming sessions. A range of 15800/900-15400 may hold for the near term.
Nikkei (28520.35, -284.50, -0.99%) has fallen. We keep our earlier view intact of a ppossible test of 28000 while below 29500.A range of 28000-29500 is possible before we see a rise above 29500 eventually and a test of 30000/31000 in the longer run.
Shanghai (3594.20, +11.82, +0.33%) has risen slightly since Friday. The view remains bullish while above 3550 to test the level of 3600 and eventually 3700/800.
Nifty (18114.90, -63.20, -0.35%) tested 18314 on Friday, before falling to close at 18114.90.Arange of 18000-18400 can hold for some time before we see a rise towards 18600/800 in the medium term.
Sensex (60821.62, -101.88, -0.17%) has come down sharply after testing the high of 61420.13 last week. The support at 60000 had held well and we can see a bounce towards 61000/62000 in the coming weeks. Failure to hold above 60000, would indicate near term bearishness.
COMMODITIES
Most commodities trade higher except Copper which continues to remain below 4.60 for now. The oil prices are rising due to tight supply in crude while the world is recovering from Pandemic and economies return back to normal slowly. Our view is bullish to see a rise towards 87.36 or even 90 on Brent and 86/87 on WTI for the near term. Gold has risen well and needs to break above 1800 to turn bullish. Silver is headed towards 25-25.50 while Copper can test 4.40/35 while it sustains below 4.55.
Brent (86.30) and WTI (84.65) have both risen sharply. Brent is bullish towards 87.36-90 while above immediate support at 85. WTI on the other hand can test 86/87 on the upside before falling off from there in the near term. Immediate view is bullish.
Gold (1795.90) saw a spike in price to 1815 on Friday which was a surprise as the price remained below 1790 fairly. Our view remains bullish to see a test of 1800/1830 again keeping a near term range of 1750-1830 for the near term.
Silver (24.45) can rise to 25-25.50 before coming off from there.
Copper (4.5475) has come down further today. The price has broken below 4.55 mentioned last week. A break below 4.55 will take it lower to 4.40/35 which would be a support zone below current levels.
FOREX
Dollar Index may fall to 93 taking Euro towards 1.1700/10 in the near term. If Dollar weakens, Aussie and Pound can rise to 0.75 and 1.3850 respectively. EURJPY has scope to fall towards 131.50 while below 133. USDJPY has support near 113.30/15 and while that holds, a rise to 114 is possible. Range of 114-113 may hold for now. USDCNY is ranged within 1.38-1.41. USDINR can be ranged within the narrow 74.70-75 and broad 74.60/50-75.25 for the near term.
Dollar Index (93.627) has not been able to fall below 93.50 over the past few sessions but looks likely to test 93 soon as overall near term trend looks bearish. Anny break above 94 would be contrary to our expectation and less likely.
Euro (1.1644) has not been able to rise past 1.1670 over the past 4-5 sessions and at the same time has not been pushed below 1.1615 on the downside. While above 1.1600-1.1625, we would still look for a slow rise towards 1.17-1.1710 in the near term.
EURJPY (132.41) is holding above 131.9 and a sustained bounce can take the cross pair higher towards 133 again in the near term. But overall unless the cross breaks above 133.50, we may look for a fall towards 131.50-131 slowly.
Aussie (0.7470) is stuck above 0.7450 and needs to fall below 0.7450 to head towards 0.74 on the downside. Else a sharp rise above current levels is needed for Aussie to rise to 0.75 or higher to negate any bearishness from current levels. We would wait for price action from here.
Pound (1.3769) has trend support near 1.3735/30 and if that holds, a bounce back to 1.3850 cannot be negated on the upside. Watch price action near mentioned support.
Dollar-Yen (113.75) has support near 113.30/113.15 and while the pair trades above the mentioned levels, it can rise to 114-114.50 soon. Failure to break above 114 would keep a range of 113-114 for a few sessions.
USDCNY (6.3888) seems to be consolidating within 1.38-1.41 region and while below 6.44, overall view is bearish.
USDINR (74.8950) is likely to consolidate within narrow range of 74.70-75.00 and broad range of 74.60/50-75.25 before any clarity is seen for further direction.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury Yields have come-off well at the far-end (10Yr and 30Yr). It will have to be seen if the fall can extend in the coming days and reduce the chances of rising past 1.75% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr). On the German Yields, the 10Yr is at the crucial resistance zone from where we expect a reversal while the 30Yr already turned down from the resistance as expected. We expect a fresh fall in the yields in the coming weeks. The 10Yr GoI has risen back on Friday but needs to be seen if it can sustain. The broader bias is still bearish to see a fall in the coming days. The 5Yr on the other hand looks mixed within its broad 5.66%-5.76% range.
The US 2Yr (0.46%), 5Yr (1.20%), 10Yr (1.65%) and the 30Yr (2.07%) have come-off well at the far-end. But still the 10Yr can test 1.75% while above 1.6% and the 30Yr can rise to 2.2% while above 2%. The 10Yr will have to fall below 1.6% first and then see a decisive break below 1.5% to negate the chances of rising past 1.75% to test 2% and higher levels on the upside over the medium-term.
The German 2Yr (-0.65), 5Yr (-0.43%) and the 10Yr (-0.11%) yields remained stable while the 30Yr (0.23%) had dipped well on Friday. The 10Yr is just below its -0.1%/-0.05% resistance zone which we expect to hold and trigger a reversal to -0.2% and lower in the coming weeks. The 30Yr has already turned down well from its 0.35%-0.45% resistance zone and can see a deeper fall to 0.1%-0% in the coming weeks on a break below 0.2%.
The Indian 10Yr GoI (6.3640%) has risen back above 6.35% but need to be seen if it can sustain the bounce and rise past 6.4% to see a test of 6.45%-6.5%. While below 6.4%, the bias is bearish to see a fall to 6.2% and lower levels. A break below 6.3% can trigger this fall.
The 5Yr GoI (5.7334%) looks mixed and has equal chances of either moving up towards 5.76% or dip to test 5.70% on the downside from current levels. We will have to wait and watch for a few sessions to get a clear idea on the direction of move. For now, the 5.66%-5.76% range remains intact.
