HomeContributorsTechnical AnalysisMarket Morning Briefing: Aussie Has Bounced Slightly From 0.7082

Market Morning Briefing: Aussie Has Bounced Slightly From 0.7082


Dow Jones has fallen sharply and the view is further bearish to see a test of 34000. Dax has room to test 15500/600 now. Nikkei can test 29000-29500 while above 28500. Shanghai looks bearish towards 3550-3500. Nifty can test 16800 today before we see a dip towards 16200 eventually. Sensex can also rise in a corrective bounce today before we see a dip again.

Dow (34932.16, -433.28, -1.23%) has fallen sharply again today. The view is now bearish to see a fall towards 34000 before we see a bounce from there.

DAX (15239.67, -292.02, -1.88%) has bounced slightly today after testing a low of 15083.54. While above 15000, a test of 15500/15600 is possible in the coming sessions.

Nikkei (28496.83, +559.02, +2%) has risen back sharply today. While above 27750, the view is bullish to see a test of 29000-29500 over the next 1-week.

Shanghai (3609.28, +15.68, +0.42%) has risen slightly today after testing the low of 3589.36 yesterday. The view is bearish while below 3625 to see a test of 3550-3500.

Nifty (16614.20, -371, -2.18%) made a low of 16410.20 before bouncing back and closing at 16614.20. The index can test 16800 today before we see a dip again. A dip below 16200, if seen would confirm a possible fall towards June-July’21 lows of 15400. A break above 16800 would reduce chances of the mentioned fall. We would wait and watch price action for more clarity.

Sensex (55822.01, -1189.73, -2.09%) could not manage to bounce back from the crucial support at 57000 and fell sharply to test the low at 55132.68. A small corrective bounce towards 56000/56500 is possible today before we see a bounce again.


Crude prices have risen after a sharp fall seen yesterday. The next 3-4 sessions might see a rise in crude prices before a reversal is seen again. Gold has held well below resistance at 1820 and continues to trade within 1820-1760 for now. Silver may trade within 22-23 both being immediate support and resistance levels. Copper has bounced well from above 4.20 and can rise to 4.35 and 4.45/50 soon.

Brent (72.23) and WTI (69.43) have both risen today after seeing a sharp fall yesterday. The recovery might take prices to 73-74 and 71-72 respectively before a fall back to 70 and 67 is seen in the medium term again. The next 3-4 sessions can be bullish for crude prices.

Gold (1791.30) is holding well below resistance at 1820 and while that holds, a fall to 1770/60 looks possible before a bounce is seen. We continue to look at a broad range of 1760-1820 unless a break on either side is seen.

Silver (22.23) fell sharply from 22.43. Support is seen at 22 below current levels which of holds can produce a rise to 23 soon. Immediate range of 22-23 may hold for the next few sessions.

Copper (4.3135) made an intra-day low of 4.23 yesterday but managed to bounce back sharply from there to trade higher just now. While above 4.20/25, there is scope for a rise to 4.45/50 on the upside. Interim resistance is seen near 4.35. Watch price action while Copper attempts to move up slowly.


Sideways consolidation is seen in most currency pairs with lack of further directional clarity from here unless we see a clear break on either side of the range for confirmation. Dollar Index and Euro can range within 97-95.50 and 1.12-1.1350 while USDCNY is ranged within 6.3830-6.36. USDJPY, Pound and Aussie can trade within 113.35-114.50, 1.3375-1.3150 and 0.72-0.71 respectively. EURJPY too is trading within 129.50-127.50 and may continue for the near term. USDINR needs to bounce from support at 75.80/60 to again rise back to 76+ levels else may trigger a fresh fall on a confirmed break below 75.60.

Dollar Index (96.46) is falling from 96.68 and while below 97, a fall to 96-95.50 looks possible. We continue to look at a broad range of 97-95.50 in the near term.

Euro (1.1284) continues to rise and is headed towards 1.1350 before we see a dip from there again towards 1.1230-1.1200. Immediate view is to see continued sideways range.

EURJPY (128.26) is rising within the 127.50-129.50 range and needs to break on either side to give more clarity on further direction from here. Till then we may expect the range to hold.

Aussie (0.7113) has bounced slightly from 0.7082 and can rise to 0.7150 before falling from there. Broad range of 0.72-0.71 may hold for now.

Pound (1.3211) is ranged within 1.3375/80-1.3150 region and may hold for the next few sessions. A bounce from 1.3150 may take it to the higher end of the mentioned range.

Dollar-Yen (113.68) has managed to bounce from 113.32 yesterday and is slowly inching up along the support trend line. Immediate support is seen near 113.35/40 which can hold and produce a bounce towards 114.50 on the upside. Immediate range of 113.35-114.50 looks possible for the near term unless a break below 113.35 is seen over the next couple of sessions.

USDCNY (6.3741) is holding well as 6.3830 is acting as a decent resistance for the near term. While below 6.3830, we continue to look for a fall to 6.36. View is bearish for the near term.

{USDINR (75.91) traded above 76 for the first half of the session yesterday testing 76.1575 on the upside but later came off to test 75.83 to close below 76. We need to see if it tests 75.80/60 today and bounces back from there to levels above 76 again or manages to sustain at lower levels. There is lack of clarity just now on immediate view from current levels. Hence we would wait and watch for directional confirmation.


The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply at the far-end thereby reducing the chances of dipping towards the lower end of their range. An upmove one day and a downmove the other day leaves the near-term outlook mixed. Broadly, the expected sideways range is intact and the yields can continue to oscillate within it in the coming weeks. The German yields have inched up slightly at the far-end. The view is bearish with key resistance ahead and a further fall is possible in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen further to test their crucial resistances. While the resistances hold, the yields can fall-back in the coming days. Needs a close watch in the coming days.

The US 2Yr (0.63%) Treasury yield continues to remain stable while the 5Yr (1.17%), 10Yr (1.43%) and the 30Yr (1.86%) have risen back sharply. The 10Yr and 30Yr have risen back above 1.4% and 1.8% respectively thereby reducing the chances of seeing 1.3% (10Yr) and 1.7% (30Yr) on the downside. While this bounce sustains, the yields can move up towards the upper end of their expected 1.3%-1.65% (10Yr) and 1.7%-2% (30Yr) range.

The German 2Yr (-0.74%) and 5Yr (-0.62%) yields remain lower and stable while the 10Yr (-0.38%) and 30Yr (-0.02%) have inched up slightly. The view is bearish. The 10Yr can fall to -0.45% / -0.5% and the 30Yr can test -0.1% / -0.2% on the downside. Resistance at -0.25% (10Yr) and 0.05% (30Yr) will cap the upside incase of any intermediate bounce.

The Indian 10Yr (6.4351%) and 5Yr (5.7602%) GoI rose further to test their crucial 6.45% and 5.78% resistances respectively. The price action in the coming days will need a close watch to see if these resistances hold and trigger a pull-back move to 6.35%-6.3% (10Yr) and 5.7%-5.65% (5Yr) going forward. A further sharp rise will be very bullish and negate the above mentioned pull back move.


Kshitij Consultancy Service
Kshitij Consultancy Servicehttp://www.kshitij.com
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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