AUDUSD is fading from the 0.7127 price level where its 22½-month bounce within the critical 0.6776-0.6840 support foundation ran out of steam. For now, the simple moving averages (SMAs) are not endorsing a definitive price trend but are weighing on the pair.
The short-term oscillators are suggesting that negative momentum is starting to intensify again. The MACD, which had improved in the negative region above its red trigger line, has already started to roll over, hinting that sellers are gaining the advantage. Further promotion of growing downward momentum is being championed in the deflection of the RSI off the 50 level and the fresh bearish charge in the stochastic oscillator.
In the negative scenario, support could originate from the mid-Bollinger band at 0.7034 and the 0.7000 hurdle ahead of the 0.6949 low. Swelling selling interest may then try to overrun the 0.6900 border, eyeing the lower Bollinger band at 0.6860 and the adjacent crucial 0.6776-0.6840 support boundary. If this base fails to keep the bears at bay, the important 0.6685 inside swing high from early March 2020 could draw attention, while further sinking in the price could bring about the test of the 0.6505 low.
Otherwise, if buyers start to push back, initial resistance could occur at the 0.7127 immediate high before the price encounters tough upside constraints from the upper Bollinger band at 0.7212 until the 0.7265 high. Successfully overstepping this tough barricade that includes all SMAs, the buyers may then meet the 0.7342 inside swing low. If optimism in the pair improves, the 0.7455-0.7493 obstacle could try to impede additional gains from challenging the 0.7589-0.7645 resistance section that stretches back to early April 2021.
Summarizing, AUDUSD is struggling to sustain positive developments towards the SMAs. For a positive outlook to be reinforced, the price would need to overcome the 0.7265 high and the SMAs. That said, a break below the 0.6776-0.6840 support base may further limit near-term positive traction in the pair.
