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WTI Oil Futures Falter But Still Supported

WTI oil futures (August delivery) turned red after failing to close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $130.50 – $92.19 downfall at $111.35/barrel on Wednesday.

The latest pullback could gain new legs as the RSI has slid back below its 50 neutral mark and the MACD remains muted below its signal and zero lines. If that turns out to be the case and the price retreats below the nearby 38.2% Fibonacci of $106.82 too, the door will open for the shorter-term support trendline at $103.70. A step beneath the latter may immediately halt around the 23.6% Fibonacci of $101.23. Otherwise, the sell-off may stretch towards the $96.90 floor.

Should the price sail northwards instead and above the longer-term ascending trendline, the bulls will again push for a close above the 50% Fibonacci of $111.35 and the 20-day SMA. If they prove successful this time, and the bar at $114.50, which was a crucial constraint to market actions this year, gives way, the rally may speed up to the 61.8% Fibonacci of $118.32 and then meet the June top of $120.87.

All in all, WTI oil futures are technically exposed to additional losses. A decisive close below $106.82 is expected to motivate fresh selling.

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