BTCUSD has been trading in a new lower sideways channel since November but a gradual pickup of positive momentum over the last couple of weeks has raised the price close to the range ceiling at 18,000. However, the 18,000 resistance is proving to be a tough obstacle as the technical indicators are pointing to a weakening of the bullish bias.
The RSI has started to gently dip lower even before reaching the 70 overbought level, while the %K line of the stochastic oscillator has crossed below the %D line, although both remain comfortably above their respective neutral marks.
If the price manages to overcome the range top, which is additionally being defended by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the next stop for the bulls could be the medium-term descending trend line. A successful break above it would bring into scope the 200-day SMA, currently residing in the 20,700 region. A climb above the 200-day SMA would turn attention to the previous ceiling of 25,000.
However, if the upside bias continues to fade in the coming sessions and the 20-day SMA slightly above the 17,000 level is unable to prop up the price, the bears are likely to target the range floor at 15,500. A drop below of the 15,500 floor would clear the way until the 13,000 region that last acted as support in October 2020.
Summing up, the positive momentum may yet strengthen again in the short term, though the medium-term picture is unlikely to switch to a more bullish one until BTCUSD has reached the 25,000 level. Alternatively, a plunge below 15,500 would underscore the bearish medium- and long-term outlooks.
