Bulls continues to face strong headwinds at key Fibo barrier at 136.66 (38.2% retracement of 151.94/127.22 downtrend), reinforced by falling 100DMA.
Friday’s price action showed repeated failure to sustain break above this barrier, suggesting that the pair is likely to remain in extended sideways mode, awaiting fresh direction signal.
Prevailing bullish tone on daily chart supports the action, though fading positive momentum and bearish divergence of 14-d momentum indicator, would keep larger bulls on hold in coming sessions.
Consolidation should remain above rising 10DMA (135.66) to keep immediate bullish bias intact, but deeper dips towards 134.10 zone (rising 20DMA / Feb 24 trough) would be still seen as a healthy correction, not very harmful for larger bulls.
On the other hand, fundamentals are weakening as initial strong positive sentiment on expectations that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates and possibly increase the pace of tightening, was tempered by calmer rhetoric from US policymaker, who signaled that the central bank would stick to gradual rate hikes.
Also, China’s economic activity accelerated above expectations, as post-Covid recovery gained momentum, signaling that the economy would grow faster and above initial forecasts, which would additionally weigh on the US currency.
Markets await release of US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Feb 54.5 f/c vs Jan 55.2), due later today.
Res: 136.66; 137.09; 137.30; 137.80.
Sup: 135.66; 135.25; 134.96; 134.12.
