EURUSD started the week with minor gains, trading at the crossroads of the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at 1.0660, which have been navigating the price southwards over the past month.
Previously, the pair refused to close below January’s low and the 200-day EMA, reducing the risk of a worsening outlook in the medium-term picture. Technically, there might be more push for improvement in the coming sessions as the RSI is strengthening its uptrend in the bearish area, while the MACD is set to climb above its red signal line, reflecting persisting buying interest.
Yet only a sustainable move above the 1.0700 mark could boost buying confidence, sending the price towards the 1.0800-1.0850 resistance region. If the bulls continue higher from here, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2348-0.9535 downleg could add some downside pressure around 1.0940, delaying an extension towards the 1.1115-1.1185 area.
Alternatively, a close below 1.0600 could bring the 200-day EMA back on the radar at 1.0530. In case that floor cracks this time, the price could plummet towards the support trendline from September at 1.0400, while a more aggressive decline could re-challenge the constraining line from May 2021 seen at 1.0325.
In a nutshell, EURUSD is showing some encouraging signs of stability after its downtrend paused at 1.0530. Despite that, traders may stay on the sidelines until the price breaks decisively above the 1.0700 number.