AUDJPY is hovering around the 91 level, just a tad above a rather busy area that is key for market sentiment. This pair has actually been trading inside an aggressive upward sloping trend channel, but its upside is currently being capped by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Therefore, AUDJPY has failed to record a higher high, which means that the bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows that started on September 13, 2022 remains in place.
The momentum indicators are mixed at this stage as the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is pointing to a range-trading market. More interestingly, the stochastic oscillator has moved below both its moving average and overbought territory. Should this continue and the stochastic edges much lower, it could be a strong bearish signal.
If this stochastic move takes place, the bears would come up against a key area. The 89.74-90.31 range is populated by the September 21, 2017 high, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August 20, 2021 – September 13, 2022 downtrend, and the 50- and 100-day SMAs. If the bears managed to break this area, the path then looks clear until the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 88.19.
On the other hand, should the bulls try to register a higher high, they would have to overcome the 200-day SMA at 91.85. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 93.63 appears to be the next key resistance point, with the ultimate target being the April 20, 2022 high at 95.73.
To sum up, AUDJPY bulls’ attempt to record a higher high appears to have run out of gas as the stochastic oscillator is ready to signal the start of another short-term bearish move.
. Therefore, AUDJPY has failed to record a higher high, which means that the bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows that started on September 13, 2022 remains in place. ){kind=link}