AUDUSD had been trending lower after peaking at the upper end of its rectangle pattern in early May. Although the pair managed to recover firmly from its 2023 low of 0.6457 on the back of an unexpected 25 basis points hike by the RBA, its advance got rejected by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
The momentum indicators are reflecting a cautiously positive tone. The RSI has flatlined above its 50-neutral mark, while the MACD is strengthening above its red signal line but remains in the negative zone.
Should buyers manage to push the price above the 200-day SMA, they could then attack the recent resistance of 0.6716. Surpassing that zone, the pair might face 0.6817, which is the upper boundary of its recent rangebound pattern. A break above that region may open the door for 0.6920 before 0.7030 gets tested.
On the flipside, bearish actions could send the price to test the 0.6622 support area. If that barricade fails, the spotlight could turn to 0.6590 before the pair challenges 0.6563. Failing to halt there, the price could descend towards the 2023 bottom of 0.6457.
Overall, AUDUSD recouped significant ground from its 2023 lows, but it has a long way to go till its short-term picture turns bullish. For that scenario to materialize, the pair must initially conquer the 200-day SMA.
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