GBPUSD bears slowed on Friday but hold grip and point to further weakness, following a 0.6% drop on Thursday.
Adding to negative signals was break below 200 DMA (1.2431) for the first time since early March, with Friday’s close below it, to reinforce bearish structure.
Fresh extension lower probed below 1.2400 handle after 3 ½ months, eyeing target at 1.2310/04 (May 26/25 higher base) test of which to mark full retracement of 1.2307/1.3141 rally.
South-heading 14-d momentum is deeply in negative territory and MA’s in full bearish setup, contributing to negative outlook.
Traders turn focus on UK inflation report (Aug CPI m/m 0.7% f/c vs -0.4% in July; core m/m Aug 0.7% f/c vs July 0.3%) due on Wednesday and BOE policy meeting on Thursday.
Markets widely expect the central bank to deliver another 25 basis points hike (15th consecutive rate increase) and push the interest rate to 5.5% but expect that this would be the last in the hiking cycle and anticipate a dovish shift in BOE’s expectations.
The pound would be further deflated in such scenario, with initial risk of violating 1.2200 level and possible deeper drop on firmly dovish MPC.
However, this should not be seen as done jobs, as inflation in UK remains elevated (still the highest among the G7 group) and forecasts point to fresh rise in August, which would influence central bank’s plans for coming months.
Res: 1.2431; 1.2482; 1.2504; 1.2547.
Sup: 1.2388; 1.2368; 1.2307; 1.2269.
