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BTCUSD Rebound Tested by 50-day SMA

  • BTCUSD remains perky after bouncing off 25,000 support
  • But 50-SMA proving to be a difficult obstacle to overcome
  • Can Bitcoin maintain its recovery?

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has extended its rebound from the September 11 low of 24,920. However, the upside pressure has started to wane after coming into contact with its 50-day simple moving average.

The momentum indicators are in the bullish zone but are pointing to some deterioration in the positive bias in the near term. The RSI has started to edge lower, though it remains above the 50-neutral mark for now, while the stochastic oscillator has eased back after briefly entering the overbought region.

If BTCUSD is to stage a sustained recovery, it is critical that it not only conquers the 50-day SMA near 27,100, but also the 200-day SMA just above the 27,800 level, as well as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2021-November 2022 downtrend at 28,110. A break above this strong resistance area would pave the way for the July top of 31,818, although there might be some friction around 30,500 too.

However, if the bullish momentum subsides further and the price turns lower, immediate support should be provided by the 20-day SMA at 26,234. Failing to halt the decline, Bitcoin could then head back towards the 25,000 level. If breached, there could be some support around 22,000. Otherwise, a revisit of the March low of 19,569 would become inevitable.

In brief, there are a number of hurdles standing in the way of Bitcoin’s latest rebound attempt. Only a climb above the July peak of 31,818 would shift the neutral medium-term outlook to a bullish one, while a drop below the 20-day SMA would turn the focus back to the downside.

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