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XAUUSD: Review of Recent Price Action

Gold prices, stable above $2,000 per ounce, commenced the week on an uptrend driven by a rallying US dollar and anticipation surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Analysts highlight that the market is keen on the Fed’s signals for the coming months rather than immediate announcements. Gold touched $2,037 per ounce, holding near this level into Tuesday’s session. Until the US jobs report, gold prices are likely to be influenced by the US dollar’s performance and Treasury market movements. The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 103.63, up 2.3% for the year. The strong dollar traditionally exerts downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.

XAUUSD – D1 Timeframe

The last time we looked at XAUUSD, I mentioned that we were to wait for a break and retest of the trendline before picking a side; that seems to be happening right now. As seen on the chart, price broke below the trendline, then reached back up to retest the supply zone. Following such a move, price usually tends to continue in the direction of the breakout, so let’s see if the lower timeframe agrees with this sentiment.

XAUUSD – H4 Timeframe

On the 4-hour timeframe of XAUUSD, price seems to have been rejected from the intersection of the two trendlines, as well as the supply zone. This means we have a total of 4 confluences if we include the bearish array of the moving averages. In line with the technical factors, my sentiment is bearish, until price presents a conflicting argument.

Analyst’s Expectations:

  • Direction: Bearish
  • Target: $1997.55
  • Invalidation: $2045


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