GBPJPY does not have a clear trend since rising to a high of 152.85, subsequently consolidating gains in a broad 147 – 152 range.
On the short-term time frame, the pair is neutral to bearish, pausing a decline after rallying to the upper end of the range near 152 and dropping sharply to break below the 200-period moving average. RSI reached near oversold levels, suggesting the decline in the market has been exhausted.
Prices are expected to consolidate in a very tight range just under the 149 level in the near term, with immediate risk tilted to the downside for a move towards 147. This is expected to be an important support level since it is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 141.34 to 152.85. From this point, there is scope for an extension lower towards the 144 area.
A break back above 149 is needed to shift focus to the upside for a push towards the upper end of the range at 152, bringing the 152.85 peak into sight. At this stage the odds are high for a resumption of the uptrend that started off the 140 handle.
For now, the short-term bias is bearish but downward momentum has eased, pointing to more consolidation during the next few sessions.
