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Commodity Currencies Retreat from Local Highs

Despite the cooling labour market in the US and declining inflation, the American currency continues to move towards new highs. For instance, the USD/JPY currency pair might update the current month’s high at 156.70, the NZD/USD sharply declines after retesting 0.6140, and buyers of the USD/CAD pair have confidently secured a position above 1.3600.


The corrective pullback in the USD/CAD pair ended just below 1.3600. According to technical analysis, on May 16th, a bullish “piercing line” pattern formed on the daily timeframe for USD/CAD. The completion of this pattern could lead to a retest of the key range 1.3690-1.3660. If the price remains above these levels in the coming weeks, the pair’s rise could resume towards 1.3850-1.3820. A drop below 1.3600 could contribute to a more extensive downward correction towards 1.3530-1.3470. Important indicators that may affect USD/CAD pricing in the coming trading sessions:

  • Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00) – Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April
  • Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT +3:00) – US Existing Home Sales


The NZD/USD currency pair, after a sharp rise in early May, retreated from the resistance at 0.6140. Over several daily sessions, a “tower” pattern was formed according to technical analysis of NZD/USD, the completion of which could facilitate the resumption of the downward movement towards 0.6040-0.5980. If the pair’s buyers manage to break above the base of the indicated pattern, the price could rise to 0.6220-0.6200. This five-day period is crucial for NZD/USD pricing:

  • Tomorrow at 05:00 (GMT +3:00) – Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
  • Tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT +3:00) – Publication of FOMC minutes

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