Technical Analysis

AUDUSD Extends Decline, Bearish Outlook Now Stronger


AUDUSD is in a bearish phase as it extends its decline from the multi-year peak of 0.8124. The pair is now testing its lowest level since July. The bearish outlook was strengthened after prices fell below the 200-day moving average.

Key support failed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.7630) of the upleg from 0.7328 to 0.8124. This level has now turned to immediate resistance.

Indicators like RSI and MACD are in bearish territory although looking neutral at the moment, suggesting downside momentum has weakened. On a shorter time-frame, the market has entered a consolidation phase. Support levels are expected in the 0.7500 handle at previous daily lows (0.7571 and 0.7534) before re-testing the 0.7328 low.

A move above the 0.7900 level would ease downside pressure and a break back above 0.8000 would shift the focus back to the upside for a resumption of the prior uptrend from 0.7328.

While the 50 and 200-day moving averages remain bullishly aligned (shorter MA above longer period MA), the 50-day MA is now sloping down suggesting a possible bearish crossover is imminent.
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