Crude oil started the week with some volatility, driven by tariffs and trade war concerns. Despite the initial recovery, I see this as a temporary corrective reaction higher in Elliott wave terms, and that sooner or later weakness could resume. The most important is a five-wave impulsive decline from above $79, that suggests that the trend may have shifted, signaling further downside after an intraday wave B rally.
The first resistance is already around 75.16, but with the sharp price movement into this area, I think there’s room for slightly higher prices within the a-b-c structure. Still, I expect bears to be back this week, as long as the market remains below the 79.36 invalidation level.
