Yesterday, the price of Brent crude climbed above $65.60 — the highest level in over a week.
According to media reports, several bullish factors are driving this move:
→ Stalled negotiations between the US and Iran over abandoning Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting oil export sanctions;
→ Wildfires in Canada, which have significantly reduced oil output;
→ Market reaction to the OPEC+ meeting held over the weekend;
→ A weakening US dollar.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
From a technical standpoint, Brent crude oil:
→ Has been forming a short-term ascending channel (marked in blue) since the beginning of the week;
→ Has approached a major resistance level.
This resistance is defined by the upper boundary of a narrowing triangle, with its central axis around the $63.70 level — a price that could be considered a fair value based on trading over the past one and a half months.
This situation points to two possible scenarios:
→ A downward reversal from the key resistance, with expectations that the price will return to the triangle’s central axis. A break below the lower boundary of the local blue channel would support this scenario.
→ An attempt at a bullish breakout of the triangle. While this scenario cannot be ruled out, it appears less likely due to the global economic slowdown risks posed by tariff-related trade barriers.
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