As the GBP/USD chart shows, the pair dropped sharply last night, falling below the 1.34170 level. This move marked the lowest point for the pound against the dollar since the beginning of June.
One of the main drivers behind this decline is the strengthening of the US dollar, which is attracting market participants amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a potential escalation of military conflict between Iran and Israel, involving US armed forces. According to the latest reports, Donald Trump has warned Tehran that US patience is wearing thin.
Today, however, the pound has seen a slight rebound, supported by the release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the data confirmed that inflation is easing, the pace of decline is slower than expected. This may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England – which in turn has boosted the pound’s value.
What could happen next?
Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD Chart
Since the end of May, price fluctuations have formed an ascending channel (shown in blue), with bulls making several attempts to break the resistance level at 1.3600 – so far, without much success.
The sharp decline from point A to B suggests that the bears have seized the initiative, with the pair rebounding from the lower boundary of the blue channel.
GBP/USD traders may:
→ interpret the bounce from the lower blue boundary as an upward correction following a sharp fall;
→ use Fibonacci retracement levels to estimate potential upside. In such cases, particular attention is typically given to the 0.5–0.618 zone (highlighted in orange). Here, it aligns with the 1.3526 level, which acted as support on 12–13 June, but may now serve as resistance after being breached.
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