NZDUSD appears to be carving out a lower top after reversing back down from the November 28 high of 0.6945. The recent corrective move from 0.6780 stalled and downside momentum gained speed, turning the focus back to the downside.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, RSI is now in bearish territory below 50, suggesting the downside move still has legs, especially after strong resistance has been met at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.6848) of the rise from 0.6780 to 0.6945.
Support is expected at the November 22 low of 0.6819 ahead of 0.6780. A further decline from this 1 ½-year low would bring about a resumption of the downtrend that started from the July peak of 0.7557.
Only a move back above 0.6870 (near 50% Fibonacci) would help weaken downside pressure. But since the market is trading below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, the outlook is quite negative.