Silver (XAG/USD): Minor Mean Reversion Decline in Progress Below US$47.17

Key takeaways

• Silver’s stellar run: XAG/USD surged 16.1% in September and 27.5% in Q3 2025, marking its strongest quarter since Q3 2020.
• Short-term pullback risk: Price stalled at US$47.17 resistance with bearish RSI divergence, signalling potential mean reversion decline.
• Upside scenario: A breakout above US$47.17 could extend gains toward US$48.14/49.45 in the near term.

Silver (XAG/USD) has delivered a stellar performance, surging 16.1% month-to-date and 27.5% in Q3 as of 30 September 2025, its strongest quarterly gain since Q3 2020.

Over the same period, Silver has outpaced Gold (XAU/USD), which posted comparatively smaller advances of 10.4% month-to-date and 15.5% for the quarter.

Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), key elements, and key levels to watch on Silver (XAG/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.

Fig. 1: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 30 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Silver (XAG/USD) long-term trend as of 30 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Potential minor mean reversion decline in progress for Silver (XAG/USD) within its medium-term uptrend phase.

Bearish bias below US$47.17 short-term pivotal resistance for a potential drop towards the intermediate supports at 45.22, 43.75, and 43.10/42.95 (also the 20-day moving average).

Key elements

• The price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) have oscillated within a medium-term ascending channel in place since the 20 August 2025 low and continued to trade above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 1).
• The recent push-up seen in Silver (XAG/USD) on Monday, 29 September 2025, has stalled at the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel at the US$47.17 level, which confluences with a Fibonacci extension (see Fig. 1).
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of Silver (XAG/USD) has flashed out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region (above the 70 level) before its exit from it, which increases the odds of a minor mean reversion decline scenario (see Fig. 1).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

A clearance above the US$47.17 key short-term resistance for Silver (XAG/USD) invalidates the bearish tone for a continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 48.14, 48.90 and 49.45.