- Upward trend shows no signs of reversal.
- Bears may remain nearby as overbought signals persist.
Gold has finally reached the long-awaited 4,000 milestone, as a mix of factors — including the U.S. government shutdown, Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and global fiscal challenges — continue to channel funds toward safe-haven assets.
While not everyone buys physical gold, investors have poured a record $64 billion into gold ETFs so far this year, according to the World Gold Council. The key question now is whether the precious metal has enough bullish momentum to hold above the psychological 4,000 level as the FOMC meeting minutes are due today at 18:00 GMT. Recall that more policymakers voted for a rate cut but most refrained from supporting a bold double reduction, except for Trump’s newly appointed member, Miran.
From a technical view, the price has marginally broken above the 2024–2025 bullish channel, with both the RSI and stochastic oscillators remaining elevated in overbought territory. Investors may therefore prefer to wait for a decisive breakout before targeting higher levels. Despite the strong upward trajectory, the price has also approached the upper Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart, suggesting that a pullback should not be a big surprise in the coming sessions.
On the downside, sellers may remain cautious unless the price falls below the 3,945–3,975 support zone, where the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) currently lies. A clear drop below that level could bring the 50-period SMA and the descending trendline near 3,890 into focus as the next potential support area.
On the upside, the bulls may next shift their attention to the 4,140 region, though they may first need to sustain momentum above the 4,050 and 4,100 levels.
All in all, gold traders may turn increasingly sensitive to any bearish catalysts in the short term as the uptrend has reached a historical psychological milestone and the uptrend is well stretched in the overbought zone.
