On 3 October, we noted that Bitcoin was entering a favourable phase. The market promptly confirmed bullish expectations, as by 6 October BTC/USD rose above $126,000 for the first time.
However, as of 9 October, the price sits around $121,000. This may be due to:
→ a stronger dollar and other fundamental factors;
→ a price correction after a 15% surge over ten days.
Could the bullish trend continue?
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
Analysis suggests that although the price surpassed the previous high of around $124,000, a bearish “Head and Shoulders” pattern has formed on the BTC/USD chart, signalling weakening demand. Buyers may have been reluctant to pay at the all-time peak, while sellers may have sought to lock in profits.
We observed a series of bearish confirmations:
→ the median of the short-term ascending channel was broken to the downside on a wide candle;
→ the previous high acted as resistance (point 3);
→ today the price fell below the lower boundary of the blue channel.
If this is a normal correction following the A→H impulse, there are grounds to consider entering long positions and focusing on levels where the pullback might end, for example:
→ $121,000, where bulls had previously shown strength (as indicated by arrows 1 and 2);
→ the psychological level of $120,000, reinforced by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the initial impulse;
→ the median (or lower boundary) of a parallel channel drawn below (shown in orange).
If Bitcoin falls into the $115–116k range — where bulls showed exceptional strength at the start of their run to the all-time high — this would seriously call into question whether the market is still bullish. In that case, 2025 might alter the historical pattern that makes October one of the strongest months for cryptocurrency growth.
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