Today, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1560, close to autumn lows. From this week’s high, the pair has fallen by roughly 0.85%, reflecting bearish pressure.
The main factors driving the decline are traders’ reactions to central bank signals:
→ Hawkish Fed rhetoric: On Wednesday, Jerome Powell indicated that further rate cuts are “by no means predetermined.” The Fed continues to see mixed signals from the labour market and inflation data, suggesting it will not rush into easing policy.
→ ECB keeps rates unchanged: Yesterday, the European Central Bank left rates steady. However, markets remain concerned about the slowing economic growth across the eurozone, meaning the ECB cannot afford to tighten policy amid weak activity.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
Since mid-September, price movements have formed a descending channel (shown in red). Today, the pair fell below a key support level at 1.1580 (highlighted by arrows).
An earlier attempt to break this support in early October failed — as the pair entered oversold territory below the channel, it formed a double bottom (A–B) before sharply rebounding.
In this context, the 1.15435 level, where the double bottom formed, is significant. The orange-shaded area shows that bulls step in near this level, producing candles with long lower wicks. On shorter timeframes, this behaviour displays signs of a bullish engulfing pattern.
If bears succeed in breaking support, the pair could test the lower boundary of the red channel. Positive news from Donald Trump on progress in trade talks with China could improve the U.S. trade balance, supporting this bearish scenario.
Conversely, if bulls continue defending the 1.1560–1.15435 zone, EUR/USD may rebound, potentially moving towards the QH line.
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