As the chart shows, XAU/USD climbed above the $4,000 mark today, a move likely driven by:
→ Weakness in the US dollar index – or a pullback from the resistance level discussed in yesterday’s DXY analysis.
→ Concerns over the ongoing US government shutdown – according to media reports, one consequence has been that American airlines began limiting ticket sales in November.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD
On 28 October, our analysis of gold price movements showed the following:
→ We constructed an ascending channel (marked in blue), illustrating the metal’s remarkable rally from its August low.
→ We suggested that the developing pullback might target the QL line, reinforced by the round-number support at $3,900.
This support zone successfully held, forming a local bottom at point B, after which the price entered a period of consolidation, resembling a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Notably, gold has today broken upward through this triangle (outlined in black). In the broader context, this breakout represents a strong signal from the bulls, suggesting a possible resumption of the 2025 uptrend.
If buying momentum continues, their strength may be tested by:
→ Resistance at $4,045;
→ Resistance near $4,150, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the A→B decline and has previously acted as a reversal zone for XAU/USD.
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