As the daily XAU/USD chart shows today, the ADX indicator is trending downwards following the extremely turbulent swings in October. This suggests:
→ gold price volatility is decreasing;
→ the market is finding balance around the psychological $4,000 level;
→ it recalls mid-July, when we noted a period of reduced volatility.
At that time, we:
→ drew an ascending channel;
→ observed that supply and demand were balancing each other, effectively reflecting all factors influencing the price.
Looking back, it can be noted that the market was in a consolidation phase (A) before the rally resumed (B) with renewed strength, as the price broke through the R1 resistance of the consolidation pattern.
It is reasonable to suggest a similar scenario may be occurring now, with the market in a new consolidation phase (C), and price fluctuations around the psychological $4,000 level reflecting new factors, including:
→ Anticipation of Fed action: Traders are hesitant to push prices to new highs ($4,400) without assurances of further monetary easing, yet are reluctant to sell below $3,900, as the global rate-cut cycle is not yet complete.
→ Dollar strength (DXY) at the end of October – early November.
→ Stabilisation of the geopolitical backdrop.
According to analysts from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and independent experts, gold may remain within a range of $3,950 – $4,150 until the end of 2025.
By analogy with the previous situation, we can expect R2 to hold, with bulls “taking a break” while gold drifts towards the lower boundary of the current channel.
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