- USDJPY pauses upside at key resistance level.
- Holding the 50‑day SMA remains crucial for bullish bias.
- Momentum indicators reflect indecision.
USDJPY is trading under pressure near the upper boundary of a pennant pattern around 156.30. The yen firmed after BoJ Governor Ueda highlighted the March and April meetings as possible windows for rate hikes, while the dollar eased amid trade uncertainty and improving sentiment around tech earnings.
Technically, attention remains on the repeated tests of the pennant’s upper trendline at 156.30. A clean breakout would signal renewed upside within the broader uptrend. However, momentum indicators show hesitation – the stochastics are flat near overbought territory, the RSI sits just above the 50-neutral mark, and the MACD remains negative but above its signal line.
The pair is also probing support at the 50‑day simple moving average (SMA). A decisive break below would expose the 20‑day SMA near 155.10, then the weekly low around the 154.00 level. Below this, key structural support sits at the pennant base, aligned with the long-term uptrend from April and the 152.80 floor that has held since November. A drop through that region would shift the near‑term outlook to neutral.
Conversely, a breakout could encounter resistance at the February 9 trough near 157.60, then the multi‑year peak around 159.45, and finally the September highs above the 160.00 intervention zone.
Overall, USDJPY is consolidating at a critical structural level, testing the pennant ceiling while momentum still lags, reflecting a neutral bias ahead of key data from both economies on Friday. A sustained close above the 50‑day SMA is needed to keep the bullish breakout scenario alive.
