Gold opened with gap-lower on Monday, hitting levels around $150 lower from Friday’s high, as sentiment changed again on escalation over the weekend that resulted in closure of Hormuz strait.
Fresh negative developments on the ground faded optimism and revived fears about inflation and other factors surrounding war environment, with higher dollar and oil prices.
Technical picture, however, did not change significantly after Friday’s / today swings, as the price still holds above significant support at $4759 (broken Fibo 50% of $5419/$4099, reinforced by 10DMA), which marks the floor of near-term range (that extends into fifth consecutive session).
Near-term action is likely to remain in sideways mode while range boundaries ($4759 / $4891 -55DMA) hold, with conflicting indicators on daily chart (MAs in predominantly bullish configuration, countered by weaker momentum studies / price weighed by daily cloud).
Markets will be looking for a fresh catalyst from dynamics in geopolitical picture, with violation of current range boundaries to generate initial direction signals.
In the negative scenario, violation of $4759 pivot would weaken near-term structure and risk acceleration towards supports at $4700 (round-figure), $4663 (20DMA) and $4603 (broken Fibo 38.2%).
Conversely, break of $4891 and nearby $4915 (Fibo 61.8%) would unmask psychological $5000 barrier.
Res: 4871; 4891; 4915; 5000.
Sup: 4759; 4700; 4663; 4603.
