The short‑term Elliott Wave view on Oil indicates that after spiking to $119.48 in response to the war with Iran, prices have moved sideways for several months. The initial decline from that peak to $76.73 on March 11, 2026 appeared impulsive and likely completed wave (A). Following that move, Oil consolidated in a triangle‑like structure until recently. Within this formation, wave (B) was identified at $109.62, as illustrated in the one‑hour chart.
From that level, Oil resumed lower in wave (C). However, a decisive break below the $76.73 low of wave (A) remains necessary to confirm this bearish view. Down from $109.62, wave ((i)) ended at $105.65, while the corrective rally in wave ((ii)) concluded at $109.2. Oil then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards $96.94, followed by a bounce in wave ((iv)) that ended at $102.66. The market is now expected to push to a few more lows to complete wave ((v)), thereby finishing wave 1 of a higher degree.
Once wave 1 concludes, Oil should rally in wave 2 to correct the cycle from the May 19, 2026 high. This correction is anticipated to unfold in 3 or 7 swings before the broader downtrend resumes. As long as the pivot at $109.62 remains intact, rallies are expected to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swings, favoring further downside. The structure highlights a mature bearish cycle, with near‑term risks skewed toward continuation of weakness rather than sustained recovery.
Light Crude Oil (CL_F) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart
CL_F Elliott Wave Video:
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