The Euro remains supported and attacked again the upper boundary of three-day congestion between 1.2000 and 1.2090. Thursday’s bullish outside day is supportive, but the pair faces strong headwinds from 1.2100 resistance zone, which stayed intact after repeated attacks. Overbought daily studies also warn of stall here, which would be confirmed on close below 1.2000 pivot. Important releases today (EU CPI and US NFP) could be a catalyst. Stronger than expected EU inflation numbers (Dec CPI y/y 1.4% f/c vs 1.5% previous month) and weaker US jobs data (Dec f/c 190K vs 228K in Nov) could spark fresh bullish acceleration for final break above 1.2100 zone. Sustained break here is needed to signal continuation of strong recovery rally from 1.0340 (2017 low) towards target at 1.2166 (50% of 1.3992/1.0340, May 2014/Jan 2017 descend). Alternative scenario could be expected on EU CPI miss and overshoot in US NFP which would inflate the greenback and risk return below 1.2000.
Res: 1.2079, 1.2092, 1.2166, 1.2204
Sup: 1.2050, 1.2000, 1.1961, 1.1952
