The USDTRY pair dipped after Turkish central bank left interest rates unchanged in its first meeting in 2018. The action was widely expected as Turkish President Erdogan opposes high interest rates to provide cheap credit to boost growth. CBRT kept overnight lending rate at 9.25% and borrowing rate at 7.25%, maintaining its unorthodox policy, despite double-digit inflation. Turkish lira advanced further after data release, as the dollar showed signs of weakness, following repeated strong recovery rejection at 3.8330/20 on Tue/Wed. Near-term price action is holding between daily Tenkan-se (3.7818) and daily Kijun-sen (3.8131) with near-term bias turning lower after bounce from daily cloud base stalled in the middle of the cloud. Further direction signals could be expected on sustained break of Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen pivots. Break lower would risk retest of daily cloud base (3.7705) and could generate stronger bearish signal on break while sustained lift above daily Kijun-sen would revive bullish near-term bias.
Res: 3.8131, 3.8217, 3.8262, 3.8330
Sup: 3.7883, 3.7818, 3.7705, 3.7446
