Fresh bullish extension on Friday pressures new post-Brexit vote recovery high at 1.3942 (Wednesday’s spike high). Cable maintains strong bullish sentiment and eyes psychological 1.4000 barrier for test, as weaker dollar underpins. Strong momentum studies confirm the strength of the uptrend, with daily RSI and slow stochastic moving sideways in overbought territory, sidelining immediate risk of pullback. UK retail sales are in focus for fresh signals. Forecast shows weaker reading in December (m/m -0.6% vs 1.1% previous month) while annualized retail sales figure is forecasted at 3.0% in Dec, well above 1.6% in Nov. Release above forecasts could boost pound for eventual probe above 1.40 barrier (FE 138.2% of current wave C of five-wave sequence from 1.3038) and trigger further acceleration on upbeat figures. Conversely, sterling may lose traction on retail sales miss. Session low at 1.3886 (Asia) marks initial support, followed by Thursday’s low at 1.3804.
Res: 1.3942, 1.4000, 1.4050, 1.4086
Sup: 1.3886, 1.3854, 1.3804, 1.3756