The single most important event today is Super Thursday. At 11 AM GMT (13:00 CEST) the BOE (Bank of England) will publish its latest interest rate decision, the minutes of that meeting showing what was discussed and how the voting went, and the quarterly inflation report. Depending on the vote split and the hawkish/dovish tone of the BOE governor, Mark Carney, we might expect volatile price movement on the GBP/USD. The vote is reported in an X-X-X format – the first number is how many MPC members voted to increase interest rates, the second number is how many voted to decrease rates, and the third is how many voted to hold rates.
The consensus is 2-0-7. Any deviation should move the price. On 2-0-7 the GBP/USD should still move up, but 3-0-6 and above should move it even higher. Dovish hold on current interest rates would be in a 0-0-9 format. It is crucial that traders pay attention to vote split and Carney’s comments. Technically the rounded bottom is shaping up giving a slight boost for bulls. Above 1.3574 the pair is bullish, and targets are 1.3609, 1.3652 and 1.3693. Below 1.3514 we might expect 1.3482 and 1.3435. MACD is also printing higher lows, and it tells me that market is expecting a possible bullish move. But be careful, we don’t know anything until the news release is live.
W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
M H4 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)
M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)
M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)
POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
