GBP/CHF’s sharp fall this week now argues that the consolidation pattern from 1.3049 is completed at 1.3265, after failing to sustain above 55 day EMA. Immediate focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.1638 (2016 low) to 1.3854 (2018 high) at 1.3007, which is also close to 1.3 psychological level. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications and affirm the case that whole rise from 1.1638 has completed at 1.3854.
In that case, next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.3854 to 1.3049 from 1.3265 at 1.2768. We’d actually expect deeper fall to 100% projection at 1.2460 in medium term. That is close to 61.8% retracement of 1.1638 to 1.3854 at 1.2485. For position trading, one can consider selling at market, with a tight stop above today’s high at 1.3140, with the above two projection levels at first and second targets.
