April saw Japanese consumer prices accelerating, with CPI accelerated from 3.2% yoy to 3.5% yoy. That put a halt to the slowdown of headline inflation from 4.3% in January.
Even more significantly, core CPI (which excludes fresh food) rose from 3.1% yoy to 3.4%. This metric has been above BoJ’s 2% target for an uninterrupted 13 months, signifying persistent inflationary pressure.
In the realm of core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, the increase is even starker, rising from 3.8% yoy to 4.1%. This figure is the highest it has been since September 1981, marking a nearly 42-year peak.
Looking at some details, services inflation increased from 1.5% yoy to 1.7%, the highest in 28 years since 1995 (excluding the impact of sales tax hikes). Durable goods prices soared 9.8% yoy, and food prices accelerated from 8.2% yoy to 9.0%, hitting the highest level in almost 47 years since 1976. Energy prices, however, bucked the trend with a yoy decrease of -4.4% yoy.
Despite these inflationary pressures, there is no clear indication that BoJ is preparing to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy. The bank projected CPI to average 1.8% and core CPI at 2.5% for the current fiscal year, but given the current data, it is likely that these projections will be revised upward in the next release.