WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer dropped to 95.7 as of August 15. That’s slightly down from 96.3 reported in the quarterly report in May. The barometer suggests that below-trend expansion in merchandise trade will persist in the coming months.
Looking at the details, sustained weakness in the barometer index was driven by below trend values in all component indices. The international air freight (91.4) and electronic components (90.7) indices showed the strongest deviations from trend, with readings well below previous releases. Indices for export orders (97.5), automobile production and sales (93.5) and agricultural raw materials (97.1) all remained below trend although they show some signs of having bottomed out. Only the index for container shipping (99.0) was close to the baseline value of 100.