ECB’s GDP growth projections are revised to 1.1% in 2019 (vs 1.2% in June), 1.2% in 2020 (vs 1.4%) and 1.4% in 2021 (unchanged).

Eurozone’s slowdown in growth mainly reflects “prevailing weakness of international trade in an environment of prolonged global uncertainties which are particularly affecting the euro area manufacturing sector.” But services and construction show “ongoing resilience. Risk to growth “remain tilted to the downside” due to “prolonged presence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, the rising threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.”

HICP inflation projections are revised down over the whole projection horizon, “reflecting lower energy prices and the weaker growth environment.” HICP projections are at 1.2% in 2019 (vs 1.3% in June), 1.0% in 2020 (vs 1.4%), 1.4% in 2021 (vs 1.6%).

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