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BoE revised down 2020 GDP contraction to -11%, but sees strong rebound afterwards

In the Monetary Policy Report, BoE lowered the four-quarter GDP forecasts for 2020 Q4 to -11%, down from -5.4%. Stronger rebound was expected afterwards. Four-quarter GDP growth is revised to 11% (up from 6.2%) in 2021 Q4 and 3.1% (up fro 2.3%) in 2022 Q4.

CPI inflation for 2020 Q4 was revised up to 0.6% (from 0.3%). 2021 Q4 inflation was revised up to 2.1%, from 1.8%. 2022 Q4 inflation was revised down slightly to 2.0% (from 2.1%).

Unemployment rate is notably lower for 2020 Q4 at 6.3% (revised down from 7.5%). Though, It’s projected to rise to 6.7% in 2021 Q4 (revised up from 5.0%), then fall back to 4.9% in 2022 Q4 (revised up from 4.5%).

Full MPR here.

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