NIESR expected UK GDP to contract -2.2% in Q4, with monthly fall of -12% in November due to second lockdown, followed by a return to October levels of activity in December. The forecast for 2020 stand at -11.3%.
Growth in the fourth quarter will be much slower than in the third quarter and is likely to turn negative, due to weaker growth in October and a second lockdown from November. Our expectations for the fourth quarter and beyond will depend on the stringency and duration of ongoing lockdowns; local and national.” Dr Kemar Whyte Senior Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting
“We expect the second lockdown to bring a large monthly contraction in November to be followed by a quick rebound in December provided that the lockdown succeeds in getting infection rates under control without the need for a further extension. The UK economy is likely to contract by around 11.5 percent in 2020.” Dr Hande Küçük Deputy Director – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting
